Real-money odds on Federal Reserve rate decisions
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions move global markets. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi let traders bet directly on FOMC outcomes — whether rates will be cut, held, or raised at each meeting. These prices provide a real-time probability estimate that complements tools like the CME FedWatch.
Prediction market odds update in real time as economic data is released. The markets below show the latest probabilities for rate cuts at each upcoming FOMC meeting. Kalshi is particularly active for Fed rate decision markets.
CME FedWatch derives probabilities from Fed Funds futures pricing, while prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket use direct binary contracts. Both methods aggregate market participant views, but prediction markets can capture a broader range of information beyond just futures positioning.
The Federal Reserve holds 8 scheduled FOMC meetings per year. Prediction markets typically open contracts for each meeting several weeks in advance, with liquidity and trading volume increasing as the meeting date approaches.
