What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Updated 47m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 25, 2026
Polymarket treats year-end 2026 rates as a near-toss-up between 4.0% and 3.75%, each priced at 29%, reflecting a June Fed pivot toward hikes on resurgent inflation and a resilient labor market. The top three outcomes (4.0%, 3.75%, 4.25%) collectively account for 82% probability, indicating consensus that the Fed is done easing and may tighten, a stark reversal from January's priced expectations of cuts.
As of September 7, 2026, the Polymarket odds for What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? are: 4.0%: 35%, 3.75%: 31%, 4.25%: 15%, 3.5%: 8%, ≥ 4.5%: 4%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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