What economic events are traded on prediction markets?

Traders can bet on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, CPI inflation readings, GDP growth figures, unemployment rates, recession timing, government shutdown probabilities, tariff outcomes, and other macro indicators. Kalshi is particularly popular for economic data markets.

How accurate are prediction markets for economic forecasts?

Economic prediction markets aggregate information from traders who have real money at stake, which incentivizes accuracy. Studies show they often match or beat professional economist consensus forecasts, particularly for binary outcomes like "Will the Fed cut rates?" where the answer is clearly measurable.

Why use prediction markets instead of economic surveys?

Prediction markets update in real time as new information arrives, while surveys are periodic snapshots. They also weight opinions by conviction (how much money traders risk), preventing "cheap talk." PredictMarketCap lets you compare these probabilities across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

Economics Prediction Market Odds 2026 - Fed Rates, Inflation & GDP

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

121,838

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,565,533,998

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$463,658,245

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,630,155,679

Polymarket$2.26BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.04MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.32MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.