How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Updated 32m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 19, 2026
Polymarket prices zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 85%, with just 12% odds for one cut, reflecting a sharp hawkish turn driven by sticky inflation above 4% and a resilient labor market. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh removed the easing bias, projected 2026 PCE inflation at 3.6%, and showed nine of 19 officials now expect at least one hike by year-end—a reversal from earlier 2026 sentiment when markets priced in potential cuts. With crude costs elevated by Middle East tensions, core PCE well above the 2% target, and the Fed signaling focus on inflation control rather than easing, the market has priced out meaningful cut probability for the remainder of the year.
As of July 20, 2026, the Polymarket odds for How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? are: 0 (0 bps): 85%, 1 (25 bps): 11%, 2 (50 bps): 3%, 3 (75 bps): 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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