Updated Today
Kraken's path to a public listing faces regulatory scrutiny and market timing pressures, yet traders give it an 83% chance of going public by year-end 2026. A successful IPO would mark a major legitimacy milestone for the cryptocurrency exchange sector.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$3.51 return per $1
If No wins
$1.40 return per $1
Price Changes
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$678.3K volCrude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$344.1K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$297.5K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$302.3K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$318.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11AM ET
PM·$268.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
PM·$249.0K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET
PM·$242.9K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9AM ET
PM·$237.2K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$219.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET
PM·$216.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3PM ET
PM·$213.3K volSpaceX No IPO 2027
Outcome: No IPO before 2028
OpenAI IPO by Dec 31 2026
OpenAI Does Not IPO by Dec 2026
Outcome: No IPO by December 31, 2026
Consensys IPO by Dec 31 2026
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Outcome: No IPO before 2028
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Outcome: No IPO before 2028
