Cross-platform spread detection across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless
Cross-platform spread detection across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless
When the same event has different prices on Polymarket vs Kalshi, there's a spread. E.g., "Team X wins" at 55% on Polymarket but 60% on Kalshi = 5pp spread.
Buy YES on the cheap platform ($0.55) and NO on the expensive platform ($0.40). Total cost: $0.95. Guaranteed payout: $1.00. Profit: $0.05 per share.
Kalshi charges price-dependent fees (up to 7¢/contract). Polymarket has no explicit fees but has bid/ask spread. Settlement rules may differ. Capital is locked until resolution. USDC/USD peg risk on Polymarket.
Polymarket uses an order book model with no explicit trading fees. Your real cost is the bid/ask spread, which is already reflected in the prices shown. Gas fees on Polygon are negligible (<$0.01).
Fee per contract = min(7¢, ⌈7% × price × (1−price) × 100⌉). Highest at 50/50 prices (~7¢), drops toward 0 at extreme prices. We calculate per-outcome using the actual price, not a flat rate.
Annualized return = net_profit% × (365 / days_to_resolution). Simple annualization, not compound — you can't reinvest in the same arb after it resolves. Uses earliest resolution date between platforms.
Cross-platform spreads are not risk-free. Each platform writes its own contract rules, chooses its own data sources, and may settle at different times. Two markets that appear identical can resolve differently if their fine print diverges. For example, one platform may use AP race calls while another waits for official certification. Verify contract terms on both platforms before treating any spread as an arbitrage opportunity.
| # | Event | Outcome Breakdown | Total Cost | Gap | After Fees | APY | Volume | $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 7 outcomes| science | International Court of Justice (ICJ)2¢-1¢Pope Leo XIV4¢-2¢Volodymyr Zelenskyy7¢Donald Trump4¢ +3 more | 27.4¢ per $1 payout | 72.6pp | +263.8% | 1.2K% 82d | $23.52M | +$263.79 |
| 2 | MLS Cup Winner 2026 25 outcomes| sports | San Diego FC2¢-2¢Sporting Kansas City0¢-1¢CF Montréal0¢-1¢Los Angeles FC7¢-2¢ +21 more | 63.1¢ per $1 payout | 36.9pp | +58.3% | 140% 152d | $30.77M | +$58.28 |
| 3 | 2028 US Presidential Election 27 outcomes| politics | J.B. Pritzker1¢-1¢Marco Rubio14¢-4¢Josh Shapiro3¢J.D. Vance16¢-4¢ +23 more | 80.6¢ per $1 payout | 19.4pp | +22.8% | 10% 841d | $4.47B | +$22.84 |
| 4 | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 40 outcomes| politics | Barack Obama0¢Liz Cheney0¢Jon Ossoff14¢-1¢Hillary Clinton0¢ +36 more | 85.0¢ per $1 payout | 15.0pp | +16.6% | 7% 841d | $8.14B | +$16.60 |
| 5 | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 32 outcomes| politics | Eric Trump0¢Glenn Youngkin1¢Ron DeSantis3¢-2¢Elon Musk0¢-1¢ +28 more | 88.2¢ per $1 payout | 11.8pp | +10.3% | 4% 841d | $1.60B | +$10.30 |
| 6 | Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 15 outcomes| politics | Evan Pettus0¢María Corina Machado2¢Frank Donovan0¢-1¢Nicolás Maduro75¢-5¢ +11 more | 91.5¢ per $1 payout | 8.5pp | +4.9% | 11% 164d | $98.95M | +$4.92 |
| 7 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion 28 outcomes| sports | Cincinnati Reds0¢Houston Astros1¢Detroit Tigers2¢Colorado Rockies0¢ +24 more | 97.0¢ per $1 payout | 3.0pp | +2.1% | 7% 104d | $247.34M | +$2.06 |
| 8 | 2027 NBA Champion 30 outcomes| sports | Houston Rockets1¢-1¢Denver Nuggets3¢-1¢Milwaukee Bucks0¢-1¢Orlando Magic1¢-1¢ +26 more | 97.4¢ per $1 payout | 2.6pp | +1.5% | 2% 346d | $101.18M | +$1.49 |
| # | Event / Outcome | Direction | Spread | Net Profit | APY | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F1 Constructors Championship 2026 Mercedes AMG Motorsport|sports Live arb | YES 84¢NO 11¢Cost: 95¢ → pays $1 | 5.0pp | +4.9% | 13% 139d | $29.27M OI: $1.13M | |
| 2 | 2027 NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder|sports Live arb | YES 21¢NO 75¢Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 4.5pp | +3.7% | 4% 346d | $101.18M OI: $26.60M | |
| 3 | 2028 US Presidential Election J.D. Vance|politics Live arb | YES 16¢NO 80¢Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 3.9pp | +3.4% | 1% 841d | $4.47B OI: $79.62M | |
| 4 | F1 Drivers' Championship Lewis Hamilton|sports Live arb | YES 10¢NO 84¢Cost: 94¢ → pays $1 | 6.0pp | +3.0% | 8% 139d | $551.80M OI: $23.84M | |
| 5 | MLS Cup Winner 2026 Seattle Sounders FC|sports Live arb | YES 4¢NO 91¢Cost: 95¢ → pays $1 | 4.9pp | +3.0% | 7% 152d | $30.77M OI: $557.8K | |
| 6 | 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva|politics Live arb | YES 60¢NO 36¢Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 4.5pp | +2.3% | 11% 76d | $243.76M OI: $1.31M | |
| 7 | 2027 NBA Champion Miami Heat|sports Live arb | YES 6¢NO 90¢Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 3.9pp | +1.6% | 2% 346d | $101.18M OI: $26.60M | |
| 8 | LeBron James Next NBA Team Miami Heat|sports Live arb | YES 44¢NO 51¢Cost: 95¢ → pays $1 | 4.5pp | +1.6% | 6% 96d | $3.41B OI: $30.27M | |
| 9 | Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 Nicolás Maduro|politics Live arb | YES 75¢NO 20¢Cost: 95¢ → pays $1 | 5.2pp | +1.3% | 3% 164d | $98.95M OI: $1.16M | |
| 10 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion New York Yankees|sports Live arb | YES 12¢NO 87¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.4pp | +1.1% | 4% 104d | $247.34M OI: $4.46M | |
| 11 | 2027 NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers|sports Live arb | YES 4¢NO 94¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +1.0% | 1% 346d | $101.18M OI: $26.60M | |
| 12 | 2027 NBA Champion Boston Celtics|sports Live arb | YES 5¢NO 93¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +0.8% | 1% 346d | $101.18M OI: $26.60M | |
| 13 | 2028 US Presidential Election Marco Rubio|politics Live arb | YES 14¢NO 82¢Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 4.0pp | +0.7% | 0% 841d | $4.47B OI: $79.62M | |
| 14 | F1 Constructors Championship 2026 Ferrari|sports Live arb | YES 12¢NO 87¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.0pp | +0.7% | 2% 139d | $29.27M OI: $1.13M | |
| 15 | MLS Cup Winner 2026 Los Angeles FC|sports Live arb | YES 7¢NO 91¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +0.4% | 1% 152d | $30.77M OI: $557.8K | |
| 16 | US government confirmation of alien existence Yes|politics Live arb | YES 6¢NO 92¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.2pp | +0.4% | 1% 164d | $506.37M OI: $0 | |
| 17 | 2027 NBA Champion Minnesota Timberwolves|sports Live arb | YES 3¢NO 95¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.6pp | +0.3% | 0% 346d | $101.18M OI: $26.60M | |
| 18 | MLS Cup Winner 2026 Nashville SC|sports Live arb | YES 8¢NO 89¢Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.6pp | +0.2% | 1% 152d | $30.77M OI: $557.8K | |
| 19 | 2027 NFL Champion New England Patriots|sports Live arb | YES 4¢NO 95¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.4pp | +0.1% | 0% 210d | $541.65M OI: $7.06M | |
| 20 | 2027 NFL Champion Denver Broncos|sports Live arb | YES 4¢NO 95¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.4pp | +0.1% | 0% 210d | $541.65M OI: $7.06M | |
| 21 | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Kamala Harris|politics Live arb | YES 7¢NO 92¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.6pp | fees > spread | - | $8.14B OI: $413.90M | |
| 22 | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Marco Rubio|politics Live arb | YES 28¢NO 69¢Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.2pp | fees > spread | - | $1.60B OI: $101.55M | |
| 23 | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 J.D. Vance|politics Live arb | YES 40¢NO 59¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.3pp | fees > spread | - | $1.60B OI: $101.55M | |
| 24 | 2028 US Presidential Election Jon Ossoff|politics Live arb | YES 8¢NO 90¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $4.47B OI: $79.62M | |
| 25 | LeBron James Next NBA Team Cleveland Cavaliers|sports Live arb | YES 31¢NO 66¢Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.6pp | fees > spread | - | $3.41B OI: $30.27M | |
| 26 | LeBron James Next NBA Team Golden State Warriors|sports Live arb | YES 11¢NO 86¢Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.9pp | fees > spread | - | $3.41B OI: $30.27M | |
| 27 | Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 Delcy Rodríguez|politics Live arb | YES 12¢NO 86¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.0pp | fees > spread | - | $98.95M OI: $1.16M | |
| 28 | 2027 NFL Champion Seattle Seahawks|sports Live arb | YES 7¢NO 92¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $541.65M OI: $7.06M | |
| 29 | 2027 NFL Champion Philadelphia Eagles|sports Live arb | YES 4¢NO 95¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.3pp | fees > spread | - | $541.65M OI: $7.06M | |
| 30 | 2027 NFL Champion Los Angeles Rams|sports Live arb | YES 16¢NO 83¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $541.65M OI: $7.06M | |
| 31 | 2027 NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs|sports Live arb | YES 19¢NO 80¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $101.18M OI: $26.60M | |
| 32 | Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Lamine Yamal|sports Live arb | YES 36¢NO 62¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.0pp | fees > spread | - | $225.60M OI: $15.84M | |
| 33 | 2026 United States Congressional Elections Yes|politics Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Polymarket 2026 vs Kalshi 2027) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 73¢NO 17¢Cost: 90¢ → pays $1 | 10.0pp | +10.4% | 28% 133d | $329.34M OI: $0 | |
| 34 | Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 UNRWA|science Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Kalshi 2027 vs Polymarket 2026) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 3¢NO 95¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.4pp | +2.4% | 11% 82d | $23.52M OI: $298.8K | |
| 35 | Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Yulia Navalnaya|science Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Kalshi 2027 vs Polymarket 2026) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 7¢NO 91¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +2.4% | 11% 82d | $23.52M OI: $298.8K | |
| 36 | California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra|other Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Polymarket 2026 vs Kalshi 2027) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 93¢NO 6¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.1pp | +1.0% | 3% 106d | $164.48M OI: $6.53M | |
| 37 | Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Pope Leo XIV|science Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Polymarket 2026 vs Kalshi 2027) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 4¢NO 94¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.9pp | +0.4% | 2% 82d | $23.52M OI: $298.8K | |
| 38 | Acquisition of Greenland by the United States Yes|politics Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Polymarket 2026 vs Kalshi 2029) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 4¢NO 94¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.0pp | +0.4% | 1% 164d | $38.30M OI: $0 | |
| 39 | 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election Nithya Raman|politics Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Polymarket 2026 vs Kalshi 2027) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 37¢NO 62¢Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.3pp | fees > spread | - | $217.49M OI: $217.8K | |
| 40 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?|politics Different resolution dates· why?These contracts resolve on different dates (Polymarket 2026 vs Kalshi 2029) — the price gap reflects the extra time, not a mispricing you can arbitrage. | YES 4¢NO 94¢Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.3pp | fees > spread | - | $424.90M OI: $721.7K |
| # | Event | Top Outcomes | Sum | Gap | After Fees | APY | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Most Googled Person 2026 13 outcomes| tech | Bad Bunny18% Donald Trump18% Erling Haaland12% +10 more | 75.0% incomplete | 25.0pp | +30.4% | 67% 165d | $6.97M OI: $3.24M | Trade |
| 2 | S&P 500 Below 6600 Jan 2027 5 outcomes| other | 6,300 or below30% 6,200 or below25% 6,100 or below10% +2 more | 75.8% incomplete | 24.2pp | +27.3% | 60% 165d | $730.3K OI: $337.5K | Trade |
| 3 | Republican VP Nominee 2028 21 outcomes| politics | Marco Rubio26% J.D. Vance7% Erika Kirk5% +18 more | 80.8% incomplete | 19.2pp | +21.4% | 9% 842d | $1.22M OI: $869.5K | Trade |
| 4 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait Closure Date 4 outcomes| tech | December 3131% September 3025% August 3121% +1 more | 83.5% incomplete | 16.5pp | +19.8% | 44% 165d | $184.22M OI: $19.51M | Trade |
| 5 | Iran Leadership Change by Dec 2026 4 outcomes| other | June 30, 202737% December 3125% September 3017% +1 more | 83.5% incomplete | 16.4pp | +19.7% | 21% 346d | $57.62M OI: $6.02M | Trade |
| 6 | Bitcoin Above 82500 July 2026 7 outcomes| crypto | Above $67,500.0048% Above $70,000.0021% Above $72,500.008% +4 more | 84.0% incomplete | 16.0pp | +13.6% | 415% 12d | $11.31M OI: $3.11M | Trade |
| 7 | UFC Flyweight Champion End 2026 6 outcomes| sports | Joshua Van45% Alexandre Pantoja40% Steve Erceg1% +3 more | 85.7% | 14.3pp | +16.7% | 37% 164d | $788.8K OI: $416 | Trade |
| 8 | Trump Impeached Before 2028 4 outcomes| politics | Before Jan 1, 202856% Before Mar 1, 202724% Before Jan 1, 20274% +1 more | 86.3% | 13.7pp | +9.9% | 34% 107d | $2.37M OI: $894.0K | Trade |
| 9 | US Announces End Iranian Blockade Aug 31 4 outcomes| other | August 3145% August 1523% July 3116% +1 more | 90.0% | 10.1pp | +11.2% | 95% 43d | $31.43M OI: $9.25M | Trade |
| 10 | US Presidential Election Winner 2028 37 outcomes| politics | JD Vance20% Marco Rubio14% Gavin Newsom12% +34 more | 92.7% | 7.3pp | +7.8% | 3% 841d | $4.35B OI: $273.91M | Trade |
| 11 | Israel Closes Airspace by Jul 31 4 outcomes| tech | August 3138% August 1533% July 3117% +1 more | 93.5% | 6.5pp | +7.0% | 59% 43d | $221.23M OI: $10.10M | Trade |
| 12 | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 45 outcomes| politics | Gavin Newsom20% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14% Jon Ossoff14% +42 more | 94.6% | 5.4pp | +5.7% | 2% 841d | $7.35B OI: $413.90M | Trade |
| 13 | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 35 outcomes| politics | J.D. Vance41% Marco Rubio28% Tucker Carlson3% +32 more | 94.6% | 5.4pp | +5.7% | 2% 841d | $1.36B OI: $101.55M | Trade |
| 14 | Ethereum Above 5000 End of 2026 18 outcomes| crypto | 999.99 or below12% 1,500 to 1,749.9912% 1,750 to 1,999.9912% +15 more | 95.1% | 4.9pp | +3.0% | 7% 165d | $11.88M OI: $648.3K | Trade |
| 15 | Israel Strikes Different Countries 2026 12 outcomes| other | 544% 440% 63% +9 more | 95.7% | 4.3pp | +4.5% | 10% 164d | $1.84M OI: $105.3K | Trade |
| 16 | NFC Champion 2027 Playoffs 16 outcomes| other | Los Angeles Rams25% Seattle Seahawks12% Detroit Lions9% +13 more | 96.2% | 3.8pp | +4.0% | 8% 189d | $6.25M OI: $1.87M | Trade |
| 17 | Iran Leader End of 2026 30 outcomes| other | Mojtaba Khamenei75% No Head of State6% Reza Pahlavi4% +27 more | 97.1% | 2.9pp | +3.0% | 7% 164d | $69.98M OI: $1.40M | Trade |
| 18 | Berlin State Election Winner 2026 8 outcomes| politics | Linke37% CDU28% Grüne15% +5 more | 97.8% | 2.2pp | +2.2% | 13% 62d | $3.02M OI: $386.5K | Trade |
| 19 | Nasdaq 100 Above 33000 Dec 2026 30 outcomes| economics | 33,000.01 or above20% 18,999.99 or below10% 31,000 to 31,499.996% +27 more | 98.0% | 2.0pp | +0.3% | 1% 165d | $3.20M OI: $2.54M | Trade |
| 20 | Sabah FK vs Kuopion PS Jul 21 3 outcomes| sports | Sabah FK59% Draw (Sabah FK vs. Kuopion PS)21% Kuopion PS20% | 98.5% | 1.5pp | +1.5% | 278% 2d | $1.23M OI: $859.1K | Trade |
| 21 | MLB 2026 American League Champion 15 outcomes| other | New York Yankees27% Seattle Mariners16% Tampa Bay Rays13% +12 more | 98.6% | 1.4pp | +1.4% | 5% 104d | $4.09M OI: $1.07M | Trade |
| 22 | Venezuela Leader End of 2026 16 outcomes| other | Nicolás Maduro80% Delcy Rodríguez12% María Corina Machado2% +13 more | 98.7% | 1.3pp | +1.3% | 3% 164d | $93.89M OI: $1.91M | Trade |
| 23 | Highest Grossing Movie 2026 14 outcomes| culture | Spider-Man: Brand New Day74% Avengers: Doomsday14% The Odyssey5% +11 more | 98.7% | 1.3pp | +1.3% | 3% 164d | $87.10M OI: $7.10M | Trade |
| 24 | Congress Republicans Control Both Houses 4 outcomes| politics | D-House, D-Senate42% D-House, R-Senate38% R-House, R-Senate16% +1 more | 97.8% | 2.2pp | fees > gap | - | $8.25M OI: $5.31M | Trade |
