Compare 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.6pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $11.66M in combined trading volume across 62 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
SpainCost: 97¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 2.6pp before fees.
View all arbs| Outcome | Spread | ||
|---|---|---|---|
![]() Spain | 15%±0 | 18%±0 | 2.6pp spread |
![]() England | 13%— |
| 0.2pp spread |
![]() France | 11%— | 12%±0 | 1.2pp spread |
![]() Argentina | 11%±0 | 10%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Brazil | 9%— | 10%±0 | 1.4pp spread |
![]() Portugal | 7%±0 | 9%±0 | 2.0pp spread |
![]() Germany | 5%±0 | 5%-1.0 | 0.3pp spread |
![]() Netherlands | 3%— | 4%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
![]() Norway | 3%±0 | 4%+1.0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Italy | 2%— | 3%±0 | 1.0pp spread |
![]() Belgium | 2%— | 3%±0 | 1.2pp spread |
![]() USA | 2%— | 3%±0 | 1.3pp spread |
![]() Colombia | 2%±0 | 3%±0 | 1.3pp spread |
![]() Morocco | 2%— | 2%±0 | 0.5pp spread |
![]() Japan | 2%— | 2%±0 | 0.5pp spread |
![]() Uruguay | 1%— | 2%±0 | 1.1pp spread |
![]() Croatia | 1%— | 1%±0 | 0.1pp spread |
![]() Mexico | 1%— | 1%-1.0 | 0.1pp spread |
C Cameroon | - | 1%±0 | - |
G Greece | - | 1%±0 | - |
P Panama | - | 1%±0 | - |
S Sweden | - | 1%±0 | - |
D Denmark | - | 1%±0 | - |
S Serbia | - | 1%±0 | - |
P Poland | - | 1%±0 | - |
H Hungary | - | 1%±0 | - |
U Ukraine | - | 1%±0 | - |
G Georgia | - | 1%±0 | - |
N Northern Ireland | - | 1%±0 | - |
R Romania | - | 1%±0 | - |
U United Arab Emirates | - | 1%±0 | - |
C China | - | 1%±0 | - |
W Wales | - | 1%±0 | - |
C Chile | - | 1%±0 | - |
R Republic of Ireland | - | 1%±0 | - |
C Costa Rica | - | 1%±0 | - |
T Turkey | - | 1%±0 | - |
![]() Ecuador | 1%— | 1%±0 | 0.1pp spread |
![]() Senegal | 1%— | 1%±0 | 0.3pp spread |
![]() Switzerland | 1%— | 1%±0 | 0.3pp spread |
![]() Austria | 1%— | 1%±0 | 0.5pp spread |
![]() Canada | 1%— | 1%±0 | 0.5pp spread |
![]() Ivory Coast | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.6pp spread |
![]() South Korea | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.6pp spread |
![]() Scotland | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.7pp spread |
![]() Australia | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 0.7pp spread |
![]() Egypt | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.7pp spread |
![]() Paraguay | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.7pp spread |
![]() South Africa | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
![]() Ghana | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
![]() Algeria | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
![]() Tunisia | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
![]() Qatar | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
![]() Saudi Arabia | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Uzbekistan | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Iran | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() New Zealand | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Cape Verde | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Haiti | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Jordan | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Curaçao | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.9pp spread |
![]() Peru | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 1.0pp spread |