Cross-platform spread detection across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless
Cross-platform spread detection across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless
When the same event has different prices on Polymarket vs Kalshi, there's a spread. E.g., "Team X wins" at 55% on Polymarket but 60% on Kalshi = 5pp spread.
Buy YES on the cheap platform ($0.55) and NO on the expensive platform ($0.40). Total cost: $0.95. Guaranteed payout: $1.00. Profit: $0.05 per share.
Kalshi charges price-dependent fees (up to 7¢/contract). Polymarket has no explicit fees but has bid/ask spread. Settlement rules may differ. Capital is locked until resolution. USDC/USD peg risk on Polymarket.
Polymarket uses an order book model with no explicit trading fees. Your real cost is the bid/ask spread, which is already reflected in the prices shown. Gas fees on Polygon are negligible (<$0.01).
Fee per contract = min(7¢, ⌈7% × price × (1−price) × 100⌉). Highest at 50/50 prices (~7¢), drops toward 0 at extreme prices. We calculate per-outcome using the actual price, not a flat rate.
Annualized return = net_profit% × (365 / days_to_resolution). Simple annualization, not compound — you can't reinvest in the same arb after it resolves. Uses earliest resolution date between platforms.
Scanned 0 Polymarket + 0 Kalshi binary,0 Polymarket multi-outcome × 0 Kalshi binary, plus 5 canonically-linked events. Markets are currently pricing consistently across platforms.
| Event | Polymarket | Kalshi | Status | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin price in March crypto | $0 | Active (3) | Waiting | $14.73M |
Crude Oil (CL) to Hit $85 by End of March crypto | Active (1) | - | Live | $5.82M |
Bitcoin Price Prediction for December 31, 2026 crypto |
| Active (1) |
| - |
| Waiting |
| $4.38M |
Bitcoin Price Dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026 crypto | Active (1) | - | Waiting | $4.11M |
OpenSea's first-day trading volume exceeding $1 billion crypto | Active (1) | - | Waiting | $1.78M |