Cross-platform spread detection across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless
Cross-platform spread detection across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless
When the same event has different prices on Polymarket vs Kalshi, there's a spread. E.g., "Team X wins" at 55% on Polymarket but 60% on Kalshi = 5pp spread.
Buy YES on the cheap platform ($0.55) and NO on the expensive platform ($0.40). Total cost: $0.95. Guaranteed payout: $1.00. Profit: $0.05 per share.
Kalshi charges price-dependent fees (up to 7¢/contract). Polymarket has no explicit fees but has bid/ask spread. Settlement rules may differ. Capital is locked until resolution. USDC/USD peg risk on Polymarket.
Polymarket uses an order book model with no explicit trading fees. Your real cost is the bid/ask spread, which is already reflected in the prices shown. Gas fees on Polygon are negligible (<$0.01).
Fee per contract = min(7¢, ⌈7% × price × (1−price) × 100⌉). Highest at 50/50 prices (~7¢), drops toward 0 at extreme prices. We calculate per-outcome using the actual price, not a flat rate.
Annualized return = net_profit% × (365 / days_to_resolution). Simple annualization, not compound — you can't reinvest in the same arb after it resolves. Uses earliest resolution date between platforms.
| # | Event | Outcome Breakdown | Total Cost | Gap | After Fees | APY | Volume | $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion |
| # | Event / Outcome | Direction | Spread | Net Profit | APY | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NBA Coach of the Year JB Bickerstaff|sports | YES NO Cost: 81¢ → pays $1 | 19.0pp | +20.1% |
| # | Event | Top Outcomes | Sum | Gap | After Fees | APY | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 💠 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion | Colorado Avalanche19% Tampa Bay Lightning15% Carolina Hurricanes |
| Event | Polymarket | Kalshi | Status | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats NCAA Tournament Game sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $19.03M |
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies NCAA Tournament Game sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $11.64M |
| 69.1¢ per $1 payout |
30.9pp |
| +44.5% |
72% 225d |
$383.1K |
| +$44.48 |
| 2 | UEFA Europa League Winner | +3 more | 73.5¢ per $1 payout | 26.5pp | +34.8% | 198% 64d | $17.5K | +$34.80 |
| 3 | NBA Coach of the Year | +25 more | 75.1¢ per $1 payout | 24.9pp | +29.5% | 107% 101d | $73.5K | +$29.49 |
| 4 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion | +12 more | 88.3¢ per $1 payout | 11.7pp | +12.4% | 15% 310d | $881.7K | +$12.37 |
| 5 | 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion | +28 more | 95.0¢ per $1 payout | 5.0pp | +4.7% | 17% 101d | $890.5K | +$4.67 |
| 6 | 2027 NFL Champion | +28 more | 96.3¢ per $1 payout | 3.7pp | +3.3% | 3% 376d | $259.1K | +$3.34 |
| 7 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner | +38 more | 96.8¢ per $1 payout | 3.2pp | +2.6% | 8% 121d | $5.00M | +$2.61 |
| 8 | 2026 NBA Western Conference Championship | +9 more | 95.9¢ per $1 payout | 4.1pp | +0.4% | 2% 87d | $104.4K | +$0.45 |
| 9 | La Liga Winner | +2 more | 97.6¢ per $1 payout | 2.4pp | fees > gap | - | $304.7K | - |
73% 101d |
$73.5K OI: $14.2K |
| 2 | NBA Coach of the Year Joe Mazzulla|sports | YES NO Cost: 89¢ → pays $1 | 10.5pp | +7.2% | 26% 101d | $73.5K OI: $14.2K |
| 3 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Minnesota Vikings|sports | YES NO Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 3.7pp | +3.8% | 4% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 4 | UEFA Europa League Winner Bologna|sports | YES NO Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 3.6pp | +3.7% | 21% 64d | $17.5K OI: $63.2K |
| 5 | UEFA Europa League Winner Celta Vigo|sports | YES NO Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 3.6pp | +3.6% | 21% 64d | $17.5K OI: $63.2K |
| 6 | 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Edmonton Oilers|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.5pp | +3.6% | 13% 101d | $890.5K OI: $4.18M |
| 7 | 2027 NFL Champion Los Angeles Chargers|sports | YES NO Cost: 94¢ → pays $1 | 5.6pp | +3.5% | 3% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 8 | UEFA Europa League Winner Real Betis|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.5pp | +3.3% | 19% 64d | $17.5K OI: $63.2K |
| 9 | UEFA Europa League Winner Freiburg|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.0pp | +3.1% | 18% 64d | $17.5K OI: $63.2K |
| 10 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Green Bay Packers|sports | YES NO Cost: 95¢ → pays $1 | 5.5pp | +3.1% | 4% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 11 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Detroit Lions|sports | YES NO Cost: 95¢ → pays $1 | 5.0pp | +2.7% | 3% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 12 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion Boston Red Sox|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.6pp | +2.5% | 4% 225d | $383.1K OI: $2.74M |
| 13 | 2027 NFL Champion Los Angeles Rams|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +2.5% | 2% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 14 | UEFA Europa League Winner Porto|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.6pp | +2.3% | 13% 64d | $17.5K OI: $63.2K |
| 15 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Dallas Cowboys|sports | YES NO Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 4.1pp | +2.2% | 3% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 16 | Serie A League Winner AC Milan|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.3pp | +1.6% | 9% 68d | $12.8K OI: $351.9K |
| 17 | 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Buffalo Sabres|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.5pp | +1.3% | 5% 101d | $890.5K OI: $4.18M |
| 18 | 2027 NFL Champion Seattle Seahawks|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | +1.3% | 1% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 19 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.1pp | +1.0% | 1% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 20 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner England|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.1pp | +0.7% | 2% 121d | $5.00M OI: $5.33M |
| 21 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion New York Mets|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.6pp | +0.7% | 1% 225d | $383.1K OI: $2.74M |
| 22 | 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Dallas Stars|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.3pp | +0.7% | 2% 101d | $890.5K OI: $4.18M |
| 23 | 2027 NFL Champion Kansas City Chiefs|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +0.6% | 1% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 24 | 2027 NFL Champion San Francisco 49ers|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.3pp | +0.6% | 1% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 25 | 2026 NBA Western Conference Championship Minnesota Timberwolves|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.8pp | +0.5% | 2% 87d | $104.4K OI: $985.0K |
| 26 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Chicago Bears|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +0.4% | 0% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 27 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion Chicago Cubs|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.7pp | +0.4% | 1% 225d | $383.1K OI: $2.74M |
| 28 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion Seattle Mariners|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.7pp | +0.4% | 1% 225d | $383.1K OI: $2.74M |
| 29 | F1 Drivers' Championship Max Verstappen|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.0pp | +0.3% | 0% 260d | $2.63M OI: $2.04M |
| 30 | 2027 NFL Champion Philadelphia Eagles|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.7pp | +0.3% | 0% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 31 | La Liga Winner Real Madrid|sports | YES NO Cost: 96¢ → pays $1 | 4.0pp | +0.3% | 1% 70d | $304.7K OI: $488.6K |
| 32 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | +0.2% | 0% 310d | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 33 | 2027 NFL Champion Detroit Lions|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.7pp | +0.2% | 0% 376d | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 34 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Portugal|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.1pp | +0.1% | 0% 121d | $5.00M OI: $5.33M |
| 35 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Brazil|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.4pp | fees > spread | - | $5.00M OI: $5.33M |
| 36 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner France|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.4pp | fees > spread | - | $5.00M OI: $5.33M |
| 37 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Spain|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.6pp | fees > spread | - | $5.00M OI: $5.33M |
| 38 | 2026 NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $2.91M OI: $13.37M |
| 39 | 2026 NBA Champion Boston Celtics|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 2.8pp | fees > spread | - | $2.91M OI: $13.37M |
| 40 | 2026 NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.0pp | fees > spread | - | $2.91M OI: $13.37M |
| 41 | 2026 NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.2pp | fees > spread | - | $2.91M OI: $13.37M |
| 42 | UEFA Champions League Winner Real Madrid|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $1.18M OI: $4.48M |
| 43 | UEFA Champions League Winner Liverpool|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $1.18M OI: $4.48M |
| 44 | La Liga Winner Barcelona|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | fees > spread | - | $304.7K OI: $488.6K |
| 45 | 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Carolina Hurricanes|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | fees > spread | - | $890.5K OI: $4.18M |
| 46 | 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | fees > spread | - | $890.5K OI: $4.18M |
| 47 | F1 Drivers' Championship Andrea Kimi Antonelli|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.1pp | fees > spread | - | $2.63M OI: $2.04M |
| 48 | F1 Drivers' Championship George Russell|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $2.63M OI: $2.04M |
| 49 | F1 Drivers' Championship Lewis Hamilton|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.4pp | fees > spread | - | $2.63M OI: $2.04M |
| 50 | 2027 NFL Champion Denver Broncos|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.3pp | fees > spread | - | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 51 | 2027 NFL Champion Green Bay Packers|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.1pp | fees > spread | - | $259.1K OI: $7.60M |
| 52 | 2026 NBA Western Conference Championship San Antonio Spurs|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.4pp | fees > spread | - | $104.4K OI: $985.0K |
| 53 | 2026 NBA Eastern Conference Championship Cleveland Cavaliers|sports | YES NO Cost: 97¢ → pays $1 | 3.0pp | fees > spread | - | $211.6K OI: $850.8K |
| 54 | 2026 NBA Eastern Conference Championship New York Knicks|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 2.5pp | fees > spread | - | $211.6K OI: $850.8K |
| 55 | 2026 NBA Eastern Conference Championship Boston Celtics|sports | YES NO Cost: 98¢ → pays $1 | 1.7pp | fees > spread | - | $211.6K OI: $850.8K |
| 56 | 2026 MLB World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.2pp | fees > spread | - | $383.1K OI: $2.74M |
| 57 | Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.0pp | fees > spread | - | $881.7K OI: $265.0K |
| 58 | UEFA Europa League Winner Aston Villa|sports | YES NO Cost: 99¢ → pays $1 | 1.5pp | fees > spread | - | $17.5K OI: $63.2K |
| 88.8% |
11.2pp |
| +12.6% |
45% 103d |
$45.6K |
| Trade |
| 2 | 💠 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner | Spain14% England13% France12% +22 more | 95.1% | 4.9pp | +5.1% | 9% 207d | $394.3K | Trade |
| 3 | NBA MVP | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander84% Luka Doncic9% Victor Wembanyama3% +19 more | 99.0% | 1.0pp | +1.0% | 5% 81d | $891.6K OI: $1.95M | Trade |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC | Beijing Guoan FC68% Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC)23% Shanghai Shenhua FC9% | 99.0% | 1.0pp | +1.0% | 369% 1d | $55.1K OI: $49.4K | Trade |
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament - Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers sports |
| Active (1) |
| $0 |
| Waiting |
| $5.71M |
2023 NBA Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers sports | Active (1) | - | Waiting | $5.16M |
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner sports | Active (42) | Active (52) | Live | $5.00M |
2023 NBA Championship sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $4.65M |
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAA Tournament Game sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $3.60M |
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $3.53M |
2022-23 NBA Championship sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $3.48M |
2026 NBA Champion sports | Active (25) | Active (30) | Live | $2.91M |
2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Winner sports | Active (70) | Active (6) | Live | $2.79M |
F1 Drivers' Championship sports | Active (22) | Active (22) | Live | $2.63M |
World Baseball Classic Winner 2026 sports | Active (20) | $0 | Waiting | $1.29M |
UEFA Champions League Winner sports | Active (9) | Active (8) | Live | $1.18M |
FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $927.7K |
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion sports | Active (32) | Active (32) | Live | $890.5K |
Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion sports | Active (16) | Active (16) | Live | $881.7K |
2026 ICC Men's T20 World Cup sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $447.4K |
2026 MLB World Series Champion sports | Active (30) | Active (30) | Live | $383.1K |
2023 NBA Finals: Phoenix Suns vs. Boston Celtics sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $377.2K |
Wisconsin Badgers NCAA Basketball Game sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $345.5K |
La Liga Winner sports | Active (6) | Active (20) | Live | $304.7K |
Michigan Wolverines vs. Opponent Point Spread sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $290.0K |
2022-23 NBA Championship: Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $283.3K |
NBA Championship - San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $280.7K |
2023 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $260.8K |
2027 NFL Champion sports | Active (32) | Active (32) | Live | $259.1K |
2026 NBA Eastern Conference Championship sports | Active (12) | Active (15) | Live | $211.6K |
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs NCAA Men's Basketball Game sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $140.1K |
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs NCAA Basketball Game sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $123.3K |
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Game sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $122.4K |
2026 NBA Western Conference Championship sports | Active (13) | Active (15) | Live | $104.4K |
2022 Texas Longhorns Football Game sports | Active (1) | $0 | Waiting | $92.9K |
NBA Coach of the Year sports | Active (30) | Active (31) | Live | $73.5K |
NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $64.9K |
Idaho Vandals vs. Houston Cougars NCAA Basketball Game sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $58.2K |
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels NCAA Tournament Game sports | $0 | $0 | Waiting | $52.5K |
UEFA Europa League Winner sports | Active (8) | Active (24) | Live | $17.5K |
Bundesliga Winner sports | Active (6) | Active (18) | Live | $13.5K |
Serie A League Winner sports | Active (8) | Active (20) | Live | $12.8K |