Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.
Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.
Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.Compare Venezuela Head of State on December 31, 2026 prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms currently disagree by an average of 2.5pp, with the largest spread reaching 7.0pp. These price differences can signal arbitrage opportunities or reflect different trader sentiment. With $150.3K in combined trading volume across 19 outcomes, this is one of the notable cross-platform prediction markets.
Edmundo GonzálezPolymarketKalshiCost: 93¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 7.0pp before fees.
View all arbs| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Delcy Rodríguez | 61%-0.5 | 65%±0 | 4.5pp spread |
María Corina Machado | 14%+2.0 |
| 0.5pp spread |
Nicolás Maduro | 16%+0.5 | 9%+1.0 | 6.8pp spread |
Edmundo González | 2%— | 9%±0 | 7.0pp spread |
J Juan Guaidó | - | 4%±0 | - |
Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 1%+0.5 | 6%±0 | 5.1pp spread |
M Miguel Rodríguez Torres | - | 3%±0 | - |
S Stephen Miller | - | 3%±0 | - |
Vladimir Padrino López | 1%±0 | 4%±0 | 3.3pp spread |
Jorge Rodríguez | 1%— | 4%±0 | 3.5pp spread |
Marco Rubio | 0%±0 | 4%±0 | 3.6pp spread |
Dinorah Figuera | 0%— | 3%±0 | 2.7pp spread |
Pete Hegseth | 0%— | 3%±0 | 2.8pp spread |
Donald Trump | 0%±0 | 2%±0 | 1.6pp spread |
Evan Pettus | 0%— | 2%±0 | 1.8pp spread |
Dan Caine | 0%— | 2%±0 | 1.9pp spread |
Richard Grenell | 0%±0 | 2%±0 | 1.9pp spread |
Frank Donovan | 0%— | 1%±0 | 0.8pp spread |
No Head of State | 1%— | - | - |
