Polymarket and Kalshi are in rare lockstep here: Polymarket prices a 7% chance the US government confirms alien existence by December 31, 2026, and Kalshi's matching "Before 2027" contract sits at the identical 7%, despite the ongoing Pentagon PURSUE file releases and AARO reports that have repeatedly found no evidence of extraterrestrial technology.
Analysis written Jul 10, 2026 · odds in the tables below are live
Yes
PolymarketKalshiCost: 98¢ per pair → pays $1 at resolution. Gross spread 2.1pp — before fees, and only at the top of what may be a thin book; both platforms charge trade fees and capital locks up until the market resolves, so the executable edge is usually smaller (often zero).
View all arbsBackground, methodology, and platform context
Compare US government confirmation of alien existence prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.3pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $65.79M in combined trading volume across 8 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
