Peru Presidential Election Winner: Polymarket vs Kalshi

Fourth time’s the charm — and Peru’s revolving door

Fujimori lost the presidency three times, each narrowly — 2011, 2016 and 2021 — before winning on her fourth attempt in a campaign dominated by surging crime. She inherits a country that has churned through eight presidents in a decade of impeachments, resignations and interim leaders, and a result so close that legitimacy, not mandate, is the immediate story.

The market that called it to a tenth of a point

Both Polymarket and Kalshi settled Keiko Fujimori as the winner (100% — the resolved outcome, not a live forecast). The genuinely striking part for prediction-market watchers: Polymarket’s margin-of-victory market priced a Fujimori win of 0.2–0.3% at ~99.5% — and the certified margin landed at 0.27%. On a race that was a statistical coin-flip, the market was both certain of the winner and precise about the margin — a genuinely hard thing to price.

Sources: Wikipedia: 2026 Peruvian general election · Al Jazeera · Washington Post. Resolved; the market board reflects the settled outcome as of July 3, 2026.