What happened
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17, 2026, in a unanimous 12-0 vote by the FOMC. The hold reflected elevated inflation pressures from Middle East conflict-driven energy prices alongside solid economic growth, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled in his first post-meeting press conference that nine of eighteen Fed officials project rate hikes in 2026 as inflation concerns mount.
Sources: federalreserve.gov · cnbc.com · kiplinger.com
Written Jun 17, 2026 from news coverage · final prices in the table below
| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
N No changeWinner | 100%settled | - | - |
A Above 3.50%Winner |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision in June 2026 has resolved with No change, Above 3.50%, Above 3.25%, Above 2.75% and Above 3.00% as the winners. $167.88M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 13 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
| - |
100%settled |
| - |
A Above 3.25%Winner | - | 100%settled | - |
A Above 2.75%Winner | - | 100%settled | - |
A Above 3.00%Winner | - | 100%settled | - |
A Above 3.75% | - | 0%settled | - |
A Above 4.00% | - | 0%settled | - |
A Above 4.25% | - | 0%settled | - |
A Above 4.50% | - | 0%settled | - |
5 50+ bps decrease | 0%settled | - | - |
2 25 bps increase | 0%settled | - | - |
2 25 bps decrease | 0%settled | - | - |
5 50+ bps increase | 0%settled | - | - |
