| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
No Bond chosen | 100%settled | - | - |
 Callum Turner | 0%settled | - | |
J Jack Lowden | - | - | |
 Jacob Elordi | 0%settled | - | |
 Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 1%settled | - | |
T Tom Francis | - | - | |
 Josh O'Connor | 0%settled | - | |
 Theo James | 0%settled | - | |
A Aaron Pierre | - | - | |
 Tom Holland | 0%settled | - | |
 Harris Dickinson | 0%settled | - | |
 James Norton | 0%settled | - | |
T Tom Blyth | - | - | |
D Damson Idris | - | - | |
H Henry Ashton | - | - | |
 Tom Hardy | 0%settled | - | |
I Idris Elba | - | - | |
R Richard Madden | - | - | |
N Nicholas Hoult | - | - | |
R Regé-Jean Page | - | - | |
C Charlie Hunnam | - | - | |
C Cillian Murphy | - | - | |
S Scott Rose-Marsh | - | - | |
G George MacKay | - | - | |
J Jonathan Bailey | - | - | |
 Henry Cavill | 0%settled | - | |
 Pierce Brosnan | 0%settled | - | - |
 Jack Lowdon | 0%settled | - | - |
 Robert James-Collier | 0%settled | - | - |
 Paul Mescal | 0%settled | - | - |
Background, methodology, and platform context
Compare Who will be the next James Bond actor? prediction market odds side by side across Polymarket, Kalshi. Platforms show similar odds, with an average spread of just 0.0pp. Close agreement often signals strong market consensus. With $1.69M in combined trading volume across 30 outcomes, this is one of the most actively traded cross-platform prediction markets.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If [OUTCOME] is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
