| Outcome |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
2 2.0–2.5%Winner | 100%settled | - | - |
A Above 1.0%Winner |
Background, methodology, and platform context
US GDP Growth in Q1 2026 has resolved with 2.0–2.5% and Above 1.0% as the winners. $1.48M was traded across Polymarket and Kalshi on 15 outcomes. This page preserves the final odds comparison for historical reference.
Descriptions normalized for comparison (outcome names replaced with [OUTCOME])
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 4.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Different platforms may use different resolution criteria, data sources, and settlement timelines.
| - |
100%settled |
| - |
A Above 1.5% | - | 94%settled | - |
A Above 2.0% | - | 83%settled | - |
A Above 2.5% | - | 55%settled | - |
A Above 3.0% | - | 0%settled | - |
A Above 3.5% | - | 0%settled | - |
A Above 4.0% | - | 0%settled | - |
A Above 4.5% | - | 0%settled | - |
3 3.0–3.5% | 0%settled | - | - |
≥ ≥3.5% | 0%settled | - | - |
< <1.0% | 0%settled | - | - |
1 1.5–2.0% | 0%settled | - | - |
2 2.5–3.0% | 0%settled | - | - |
1 1.0–1.5% | 0%settled | - | - |
