Updated 11h ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 6, 2026
Polymarket's 92% probability of no 2026 IPO reflects OpenAI's decisive pivot from fourth-quarter timing. CFO Sarah Friar told employees in late August 2026 the company will debut in 2027 or sooner, with CEO Sam Altman treating a $1 trillion valuation as non-negotiable; the gap between the private market's $852 billion valuation and that target explains the delay. Rival Anthropic remains a nearer-term wildcard for September 2026 listing, but OpenAI's leadership is now running its own timeline despite competitive pressure.
As of September 11, 2026, the Polymarket odds for OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap are: No IPO by December 31, 2026: 93%, 1T–1.25T: 6%, 1.5T+: 5%, 750B–1T: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
