Will the Citrini scenario happen?
Updated 49m ago
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release, occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of July 20, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the Citrini scenario happen? are: Yes: 21%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the Citrini scenario happen? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
78pp
