Ceasefire odds and conflict predictions from real-money markets
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is one of the most actively traded geopolitical topics on prediction markets, with hundreds of active contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi. Traders are pricing ceasefire timelines, territorial outcomes, NATO involvement, and the broader diplomatic landscape with real money at stake.
Prediction markets offer contracts on specific ceasefire timelines and conditions. Odds shift in real time as diplomatic signals emerge. Check the live markets below for the latest probabilities.
Polymarket alone has seen hundreds of millions of dollars in volume on Ukraine-related contracts, making it one of the most liquid geopolitical prediction market topics.
