What are the current odds for "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 23.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $510.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 23.5% or No shares at 76.5%. The market has $49.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Updated Today

Ukraine faces a 26% market probability of territorial concessions before 2027, highlighting realistic peace negotiation scenarios amid ongoing conflict. This outcome carries massive implications for European security architecture and post-war borders across Eastern Europe.

Current Probability

23.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.26 return per $1

If No wins

$1.31 return per $1