What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 35.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $11.94M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 35.5% or No shares at 64.5%. The market has $479.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Updated Today

With 38% odds attached to a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire by year-end 2026, traders are pricing in meaningful diplomatic momentum but significant uncertainty. The conflict has reshaped European security and energy markets; any resolution would reshape global geopolitics and sanctions regimes.

Current Probability

35.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.82 return per $1

If No wins

$1.55 return per $1