What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 11.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $542.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 11.5% or No shares at 88.5%. The market has $29.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Updated 49 min ago

For this market to resolve Yes by end of 2026, Russia and Ukraine must agree to a ceasefire, Ukraine must renounce NATO membership, and both must sign a peace deal. Markets currently give this three-part outcome a 16% probability.

Current Probability

11.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.70 return per $1

If No wins

$1.13 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

View full rules