What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $26.09M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.8% or No shares at 98.3%. The market has $283.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarkettech

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Updated Today

The Russia-Ukraine war has caused over a million casualties and displaced millions more, with ceasefire prospects tied to shifting military dynamics and geopolitical leverage. Markets currently assign just a 2% chance of a ceasefire by March 2026, reflecting widespread skepticism that meaningful peace talks will succeed within that timeframe.

Current Probability

1.8%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$57.14 return per $1

If No wins

$1.02 return per $1