What are the current odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $38.79M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.0% or No shares at 96.0%. The market has $648.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Updated 1 min ago

This market resolves Yes if China launches a military offensive to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan by December 31, 2026. Markets currently price this scenario at 7%, with resolution based on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the UN, or credible reporting consensus.

Why this price?

Traders price invasion at 4% because no amphibious mobilization is visible, military leadership purges have delayed readiness, economic constraints make conflict costly, and only 5 months remain in 2026 with no escalation.

Source: polymarket.com · Updated May 29, 2026

Current Probability

4.0%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$24.69 return per $1

If No wins

$1.04 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.