What are the current odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 11.2% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $11.24M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 11.2% or No shares at 88.8%. The market has $470.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarkettech

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Updated Today

A potential Chinese military operation against Taiwan would reshape global trade, chip supplies, and US–Asia alliances overnight. Markets currently price the risk at 10% by year-end 2026, reflecting both military tensions and diplomatic deterrents that continue to evolve.

Current Probability

11.2%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.97 return per $1

If No wins

$1.13 return per $1