What are the current odds for "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 7.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $770.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 7.5% or No shares at 92.5%. The market has $81.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,755

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,605,373,058

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$481,311,792

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,735,360,079

Polymarket$2.36BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$352.10MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.72MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,755

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,605,373,058

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$481,311,792

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,735,360,079

Polymarket$2.36BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$352.10MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.72MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarkettech

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Updated Today

Geopolitical tensions around Taiwan remain at elevated levels, with a military blockade representing an extreme but monitored scenario. Markets assign just an 8% probability to Chinese blockade action by June 2026, balancing diplomatic risk against economic and strategic costs.

Current Probability

7.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$13.33 return per $1

If No wins

$1.08 return per $1