What are the current odds for "European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? "?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 24.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $92.9K in total volume.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Q: Where can I trade on "European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? "?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 24.0% or No shares at 76.0%. The market has $11.4K in liquidity.

Updated Today

A European nation securing a formal security guarantee for Ukraine by June 30, 2026 carries just a 22% probability according to markets—signaling skepticism that any single country will formalize such commitments amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This would represent a major diplomatic shift in European security architecture.

Current Probability

24.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.17 return per $1

If No wins

$1.32 return per $1