What are the current odds for "U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? "?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 15.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $123.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? "?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 15.0% or No shares at 85.0%. The market has $13.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Updated Today

Strengthening Ukraine's security stance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, a formal U.S. guarantee by June 30, 2026 remains uncertain. Markets currently price this diplomatic commitment at only 18% likelihood, signaling skepticism about near-term formal security arrangements.

Current Probability

15.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.67 return per $1

If No wins

$1.18 return per $1