What are the current odds for "Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? "?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $63.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? "?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.1% or No shares at 98.0%. The market has $16.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?

Updated Today

NATO membership has been a core Ukrainian war aim, making any agreement to forgo it a major diplomatic reversal. Markets give just 3% odds Ukraine agrees to stay out of NATO by March 31, 2026, reflecting Kyiv's strong commitment to the alliance despite Russian pressure.

Current Probability

2.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$48.78 return per $1

If No wins

$1.02 return per $1