
Updated Ended
Potential U.S.-Iran military de-escalation would represent a major shift in Middle East tensions. Markets give Trump announcing an end to operations by mid-March just a 1% probability, reflecting skepticism about rapid diplomatic breakthroughs.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2000.00 return per $1
If No wins
$1.00 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Trump out as President by March 31?
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Marco Cecchinato
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Trump out as President by June 30?
Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Sandro Kopp
Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Arthur Gea
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Trump Ends Iran Ops by Mar 31
Trump Ends Iran Military Ops by Apr 30
Trump End Iran Military Ops by Jun 30
US Support Kurds in Iran by Mar 31
Iran Military Action Continues Mar 2026
Military Action Against Iran Ends Mar 31 2026