
Updated Today
In a closely-watched geopolitical market, traders give Trump a 62% chance of announcing an end to U.S. military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026. This reflects shifting expectations around Middle East policy and potential diplomatic developments.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$1.80 return per $1
If No wins
$2.25 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Trump out as President by March 31?
Kigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Marco Cecchinato
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Trump out as President by June 30?
Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Sandro Kopp
Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Arthur Gea
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?