What are the current odds for "Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $89.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.1% or No shares at 95.9%. The market has $14.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?

Updated Today

Diplomatic tensions between Israel and Europe could intensify significantly by March 31, 2026. Markets currently give this scenario just a 4% chance, reflecting the rarity of ambassador expulsions—a dramatic escalation typically reserved for severe geopolitical crises. Such a move would signal a major rupture in EU-Israel relations.

Current Probability

4.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$24.39 return per $1

If No wins

$1.04 return per $1