Prediction market odds on crude oil price thresholds
Crude oil prices are one of the most actively traded commodities on prediction markets, with over $50M in volume across dozens of price threshold contracts. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi bet on whether WTI crude will hit specific price levels — $85, $90, $100, $110, $120, and beyond — by various deadlines. These markets effectively create a crowd-sourced probability distribution for future oil prices, updated continuously as geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, and supply data unfold.
Prediction market odds for oil price thresholds update in real time. Markets cover multiple targets ($85–$200) across different timeframes. Check the live markets below to see the latest probabilities for each price level.
Key factors include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical conflicts (especially in the Middle East), US strategic reserve policy, global demand forecasts, and sanctions on oil-producing nations. The 2026 Iran conflict caused massive volatility in oil prediction markets.
Each contract is a binary option on a price threshold — for example, "Will WTI crude hit $100 by March 31?" Traders buy Yes or No shares, and the price reflects the market's implied probability. Multiple threshold contracts together form an implied price distribution.
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