Real-money odds on US-Iran military conflict and ceasefire
The US-Iran confrontation has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in prediction market volume. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing everything from military strike timelines to oil price impacts and regime change scenarios. These markets provide a real-time probability dashboard for one of the most consequential geopolitical situations in the world.
40+ markets, $250M traded. Regime change, ceasefire timelines, and oil to $120 — what real-money traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing for the 2026 Iran war.
A data-driven look at how prediction market platforms created hundreds of new markets within hours of the 2026 Iran war. Polymarket moved first and captured 84% of volume.
$11.4M traded on Polymarket. After Sharif's tweet the market exploded from 5% to 40% — pricing a done deal three hours before Trump confirmed it. One wallet was built specifically for this trade.
Prediction markets have active contracts on US military action against Iran, including specific scenarios like strikes on nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure, and regime targets. Check the live markets below for the latest probabilities.
Prediction markets offer ceasefire timeline contracts that show the probability-weighted expected timeline. These odds shift in real time as diplomatic negotiations progress or break down.
Kalshi and Polymarket both have oil price contracts that traders use to hedge geopolitical risk. The "war premium" in oil prices can be estimated by comparing current market odds with pre-conflict baselines.
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?
