Prediction market odds on regime change in Iran
The question of Iranian regime stability has surged on prediction markets following the 2026 military strikes, with over $70M in trading volume. Traders are pricing the probability of Supreme Leader succession, government collapse, and negotiated transitions across multiple timelines. These markets provide a real-time gauge of how likely traders consider fundamental political change in Iran.
Prediction market odds vary by timeline and definition. Some markets ask about Supreme Leader succession, others about government collapse. Check the live markets below for probabilities across different scenarios.
Potential triggers include military pressure, internal uprising, economic collapse, or a negotiated transition. Prediction markets price each scenario differently — military and protest-driven change tends to be priced as lower probability but with higher volatility around crisis events.
Following the 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, prediction markets saw an explosion of Iran-related contracts. Regime change markets are distinct from military conflict and ceasefire markets — they focus on long-term political outcomes rather than near-term military events.
