Prediction market odds for the FIFA World Cup
The 2026 FIFA World Cup — hosted by the US, Mexico, and Canada — will be the first with 48 teams. Prediction markets are already pricing winner odds months before kickoff. Unlike sportsbook odds which include a built-in margin, prediction market prices directly reflect the crowd's probability estimate.
Spain went unbeaten through the 2026 World Cup group stage and Polymarket marked it down from 17.0% to 10.3% and fourth place. A 4–0 win moved its price two tenths of a point; a 1–0 win moved it down two and a half. A full-tournament reconstruction from our own hourly capture — and the structural reason a bracket market’s price is mostly not about the thing it names.
Spain (16.9%) just edged France (16.1%) atop the 2026 World Cup board — and Polymarket and Kalshi agree within a point. The favorites, the spring-long France-to-Spain crossover, why a tournament trades nothing like a nightly NBA game, and the $2B volume figure that double-counts itself.
Polymarket signed MLB. Kalshi forecasts run on FOX, CNBC, and CNN. Cross-platform sports markets have cleared $40 billion+ in lifetime volume. A single NBA playoff Game 4 already has $27M on it. Here's what real-money sports analytics looks like in 2026.
Prediction market odds change as tournaments approach and team form becomes clearer. Check the live markets below for the latest odds on each team. Major favorites typically include Brazil, Argentina, France, and the host nations.
Prediction markets function as peer-to-peer exchanges where prices are set by supply and demand, with no bookmaker margin. This often results in more efficient odds. You can also sell your position at any time before the final.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled for June 11 to July 19, 2026, across venues in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
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