Prediction market odds for the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards are one of the most actively traded entertainment prediction markets. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi bet on Best Picture, acting categories, and directing — with odds that shift as critics' awards season unfolds. Prediction markets have historically been among the best Oscar forecasting tools, rivaling expert aggregators like Gold Derby.
Prediction market odds for the Oscars update in real time, especially during critics' awards season (December-February). Check the live markets below for the latest Best Picture, Best Director, and acting category probabilities.
Prediction markets have a strong track record for Oscar predictions, particularly in the Best Picture category. They tend to be most accurate in the final days before the ceremony as late-breaking information (guild awards, critical consensus) gets priced in.
