Oscar nominees: Best Picture
Updated 2h ago
If [outcome] has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 6, 2026
The Odyssey dominates at 95% as the overwhelming favorite on blockbuster scale and Christopher Nolan momentum, but the market shows compressed odds for three prestige challengers below it. Project Hail Mary at 85% holds its ground as a four-quadrant crowdpleaser with strong lead performances, while The Black Ball (La Bola Negra) at 77% and Wild Horse Nine at 76% are nearly tied, representing just-premiered and just-crowned festival winners—The Black Ball earned Best Director at Cannes in May, and Wild Horse Nine just debuted at Venice on September 3 with an acclaimed ensemble and McDonagh's pedigree.
As of September 7, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Oscar nominees: Best Picture are: The Odyssey: 97%, Dune: Part Three: 82%, Project Hail Mary: 81%, Wild Horse Nine: 81%, The Black Ball: 77%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Oscar nominees: Best Picture is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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