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Home/Questions/Will the US Confirm That Aliens Exist?

Will the US Confirm That Aliens Exist?

Prediction market odds on UFO/UAP disclosure

UFO and UAP disclosure has become a serious prediction market topic, with over $30M in combined trading volume. Following Congressional hearings, Pentagon whistleblowers, and bipartisan legislation demanding transparency, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are placing real-money bets on whether the US government will officially confirm non-human intelligence. These markets reflect the growing mainstream interest in what was once a fringe topic.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the odds the US confirms aliens exist?

Prediction markets offer contracts with various timelines and definitions of "confirmation." Some require official government acknowledgment of non-human intelligence, while others focus on UAP evidence disclosure. Check the live markets below for current probabilities.

What is UAP disclosure?

UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) disclosure refers to the US government officially releasing information about encounters with unexplained objects or phenomena that may suggest non-human origin. Congress has held hearings and passed legislation requiring government agencies to share UAP-related information.

Why are people betting on alien disclosure?

Recent Congressional hearings, Pentagon whistleblower testimony, and bipartisan UAP legislation have moved this from fringe speculation to mainstream political discussion. Prediction markets allow people to express their beliefs about the likelihood of official disclosure with real money at stake.

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Active Markets
6
Total Volume
$30.46M
24h Volume
$1.27M
Platforms
2
US Confirm Aliens by 2027

US Confirm Aliens by 2027

Dec 31
Yes19%
No82%
Vol $17.98M24h $675.8K
PM
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Jan 1, 27
Yes20%
No80%
Vol $12.32M24h $575.5K
KL
Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027?

Will Trump release new UFO files before 2027?

Jan 1, 27
Yes66%
No34%
Vol $75.6K24h $300
KL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?

Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?

Mar 31
Yes30%
No70%
Vol $58.9K24h $10.4K
PM
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

Oct 31
Yes6%
No94%
Vol $26.3K24h $11.9K
PM
2026 NBA Draft: 1st Overall pick

2026 NBA Draft: 1st Overall pick

Jun 25
Darryn Peterson39%
Cameron Boozer15%
Caleb Wilson3%
Vol $024h $0
PM