Prediction market odds on a US government shutdown
Government shutdown drama has become a recurring feature of US politics, with funding deadlines creating predictable spikes in trading activity. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket offer real-money contracts on whether a shutdown will occur, how long it will last, and which agencies will be affected.
Check the live markets below for the latest real-money probabilities. Odds typically spike as funding deadlines approach and Congress negotiates spending bills.
Government shutdowns vary widely in duration. The longest was 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019). Most are resolved within 1-3 weeks. Prediction markets often offer contracts on both whether a shutdown will happen and how long it will last.
During a shutdown, non-essential federal employees are furloughed, national parks may close, and some government services are delayed. Essential services (military, law enforcement, air traffic control) continue operating.
