Prediction market odds on tariffs and trade policy
Tariffs and trade policy have become one of the most consequential economic forces of 2026, affecting everything from consumer prices to stock market valuations. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi offer real-money contracts on specific tariff actions, trade deal timelines, and economic consequences. While market volume is still growing, the search interest in tariff predictions far exceeds most other economic topics.
Prediction markets offer contracts on specific tariff actions (e.g., tariff rates on Chinese goods, EU trade negotiations) and their economic consequences. Check the live markets below for the latest probabilities.
Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can raise consumer prices (inflation), reduce trade volumes, disrupt supply chains, and trigger retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. Prediction markets help quantify the probability of various trade scenarios and their economic impact.
Prediction markets offer separate contracts on both tariff actions and recession probability. The correlation between trade policy and recession risk can be observed by comparing odds across these markets. See our recession odds page for the latest recession probabilities.
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
