Updated Today
Trade policy uncertainty has major consequences for consumer prices and global supply chains heading into 2026. Markets currently price a 96% probability that a 10% US blanket tariff remains in effect through March 31st, reflecting strong conviction about the policy's persistence.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$1.04 return per $1
If No wins
$24.69 return per $1
Price Changes
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$678.3K volCrude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$344.1K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$297.5K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$302.3K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$318.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11AM ET
PM·$268.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
PM·$249.0K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET
PM·$242.9K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9AM ET
PM·$237.2K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$219.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET
PM·$216.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3PM ET
PM·$213.3K volTrump tariff dividend by Mar 31 2026
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
Outcome: 5–15%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31?
Outcome: 25–35%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?
Outcome: 35%+
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
Outcome: 15–25%
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
