What are the current odds for "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $144.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.1% or No shares at 98.9%. The market has $32.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?

Updated Today

Donald Trump has proposed significant tariff increases on imports, raising questions about potential economic benefits for American workers and businesses. Markets currently give Trump creating a measurable tariff dividend by March 31, 2026 just a 2% chance, suggesting skepticism about achieving net positive outcomes within that timeframe.

Current Probability

1.1%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$86.96 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1

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Kalshi

Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in March 2026?

Outcome: Yes

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027

13.0%

$90.5K vol

-0.01% 24h