Live prediction market odds on a US recession
Prediction markets let thousands of traders put real money behind their economic forecasts. Unlike surveys or pundit opinions, these probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game estimates of whether the US economy will enter a recession. Below are the most actively traded recession-related markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless, ranked by volume.
Prediction market odds change in real time as traders buy and sell contracts. Check the live markets below for the latest probability. These prices reflect the collective best guess of traders with real money at stake.
Prediction markets aggregate information from many participants and have historically been competitive with professional economic forecasts. They update in real time as new data (jobs reports, GDP, Fed decisions) is released, making them more responsive than quarterly survey-based forecasts.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares US recessions based on a broad assessment of economic activity including GDP, employment, industrial production, and retail sales. Markets typically reference the NBER definition or use GDP-based criteria (two consecutive quarters of negative growth).
