What are the current odds for "US recession by end of 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 31.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $689.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US recession by end of 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 31.5% or No shares at 68.5%. The market has $111.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 10 months (Jan 31, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

US recession by end of 2026?

Updated Today

Economic forecasters remain divided on recession timing, with markets currently pricing a 34% chance the U.S. enters recession by end of 2026. Inflation, interest rates, and labor market strength will be critical indicators over the coming months.

Current Probability

31.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.17 return per $1

If No wins

$1.46 return per $1