Prediction market odds on presidential removal or departure
Whether through impeachment, resignation, the 25th Amendment, or other mechanisms, the question of presidential tenure is one of the most politically charged topics on prediction markets. With over $17M in trading volume, traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the probability of Trump leaving office before his term ends — across various timelines and scenarios.
Prediction markets offer contracts with various timelines — some ask about specific dates, others about the full term. Check the live markets below for the latest probabilities across different scenarios.
A president can leave office through impeachment and conviction by Congress, voluntary resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment (incapacity), or losing a subsequent election. Prediction markets price the aggregate probability of departure regardless of mechanism.
