Updated Today
Donald Trump's presidency faces an exceptionally low probability of early termination through resignation. Markets give this just a 7% chance by end of 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of sitting presidents stepping down voluntarily.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$15.38 return per $1
If No wins
$1.07 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
PM·$4.37M volIslanders vs. Senators
PM·$988.1K volSenators vs. Capitals
PM·$795.3K volTrump out as President by March 31?
PM·$8.45M volWill Trump visit China by March 31?
PM·$3.71M volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
PM·$2.39M volKigali 2: Marco Trungelliti vs Marco Cecchinato
PM·$203.2K volIslanders vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
PM·$189.3K volMiami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva
PM·$154.4K volTrump out as President by June 30?
PM·$469.5K volTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
PM·$1.02M volWill Trump visit China by April 30?
PM·$2.32M vol
KalshiTrump Resigns Before Term Ends
Outcome: Before his term ends
KalshiWill Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?
Outcome: Clarence Thomas
KalshiWill Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?
Outcome: Samuel Alito
KalshiWill Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?
Outcome: Sonia Sotomayor
