Prediction market odds on global temperature records
Climate records have become a tradeable asset on prediction markets. Kalshi offers contracts on whether global temperatures will break records, providing a real-money probability estimate that complements NOAA and NASA forecasts. Like sports markets, weather markets are structurally impossible to insider trade — making these odds an especially trustworthy form of crowdsourced consensus.
Prediction markets on Kalshi offer contracts on annual temperature records. The current contract price reflects the market's real-money probability estimate. Check the live markets below for the latest odds.
These markets typically reference official NOAA or NASA GISS data for global average temperatures. Resolution occurs after the official annual data is published, usually in January of the following year.
