Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Updated 3m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket prices 2026 as the hottest year on record at 79%, far exceeding official forecasts from just weeks prior—Berkeley Earth's August update shows 69% odds after El Niño intensified dramatically, while the Met Office and WMO put 2026 as likely second-warmest (1.46°C vs 2024's 1.55°C record). July 2026 tied as Earth's hottest month on record alongside July 2024, and the El Niño's peak warming effects typically lag ocean conditions by months, still unfolding. The market's bullish call reflects real heat data but diverges sharply from established climate models that hedge toward 2027 setting the true record.
As of September 11, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? are: 1: 77%, 2: 22%, 3: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
