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If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? are: Hottest: 16%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
