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Home/Questions/Who Will Win the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Who Will Win the 2026 Midterm Elections?

Prediction market odds on House & Senate control

Live odds across Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless · refreshes every 15 minutes

The 2026 midterm elections will determine control of the US House and Senate. Prediction markets are already pricing key races, with traders betting on which party will control each chamber and the outcomes of competitive individual races. These real-money odds provide an alternative to traditional polling and pundit forecasts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 midterms?

Prediction market odds update in real time. Check the markets below for the latest probabilities on House and Senate control, as well as individual race outcomes.

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

The 2026 US midterm elections are held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November — November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and approximately 33-34 Senate seats will be contested.

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Live answer·Updated just now

2026 United States Congressional Elections

79.0%YesView market
2026 United States Midterm Elections
49.5%Democrats Sweep
2026 US House of Representatives Control
87.5%Democratic Party
Active Markets
125
Total Volume
$124.31M
24h Volume
$2.62M
Platforms
2
2026 United States Congressional Elections

2026 United States Congressional Elections

Nov 30
Yes
No
Vol $22.58M24h $84.6K
polymarketkalshi12pp
2026 United States Midterm Elections

2026 United States Midterm Elections

Nov 3
Democrats Sweep
D-House, D-Senate
D-House, R-Senate
Vol $19.61M24h $240.7K
polymarketkalshi
2026 US House of Representatives Control

2026 US House of Representatives Control

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Below 193
198-202
Vol $11.84M24h $26.6K
polymarketkalshi
Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $10.79M24h $15.7K
polymarketkalshi4pp
South Carolina Republican Senate Primary

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary

Jan 1, 2027
Darline Graham
Ralph Norman
Russell Fry
Vol $10.05M24h $1.14M
KL
Texas Senate Election 2026

Texas Senate Election 2026

Jan 4, 2027
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Vol $9.47M24h $95.6K
polymarketkalshi3pp
U.S. Senate composition after 2026 midterm elections

U.S. Senate composition after 2026 midterm elections

Feb 1, 2027
Above 52
≤47
51
Vol $4.90M24h $60.5K
polymarketkalshi
Maine Senate Republican Winner 2026

Maine Senate Republican Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Troy Jackson
Susan Collins
Vol $3.91M24h $3.9K
KL
Michigan Senate Republican 2026

Michigan Senate Republican 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Abdul El-Sayed
Mike Rogers
Vol $1.83M24h $72.2K
KL
Maine Senate Winner 2026

Maine Senate Winner 2026

Nov 3
Troy Jackson
Susan Collins
Graham Platner
Vol $1.71M24h $1.1K
KL
Ohio Senate Democratic Winner 2026

Ohio Senate Democratic Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Sherrod Brown
Jon Husted
Vol $1.70M24h $33.0K
KL
Iowa Senate Republican Winner 2026

Iowa Senate Republican Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Ashley Hinson
Josh Turek
Vol $1.62M24h $8.6K
KL
Republican Wins North Carolina Senate 2026

Republican Wins North Carolina Senate 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Roy Cooper
Michael Whatley
Vol $1.42M24h $682
KL
Michigan Senate Winner 2026

Michigan Senate Winner 2026

Nov 3
Abdul El-Sayed
Mike Rogers
Haley Stevens
Vol $1.32M24h $29.8K
KL

Senate Votes Clarity Act

Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Oct 1, 2026
Before Aug 8, 2026
Vol $1.23M24h $38.6K
KL
Maine Senate Election 2026 Winner

Maine Senate Election 2026 Winner

Troy Jackson (D)
Susan Collins (R)
Vol $1.15M24h $1.7K
PM
Mitch McConnell Steps Down Senate Jan 2027

Mitch McConnell Steps Down Senate Jan 2027

Jan 3, 2027
Yes
No
Vol $1.14M24h $17.4K
PM
Democrats Hold 250+ House Seats 2027

Democrats Hold 250+ House Seats 2027

Feb 1, 2027
234-237
230-233
226-229
Vol $1.11M24h $3.7K
KL
Republican Wins TX-15 House Seat 2026

Republican Wins TX-15 House Seat 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Bobby Pulido
Monica De La Cruz
Vol $1.10M24h $1.9K
KL
Georgia Senate Democrat Winner 2027

Georgia Senate Democrat Winner 2027

Jan 4, 2027
Jon Ossoff
Mike Collins
Vol $1.04M24h $2.8K
KL
Alaska Senate Election Winner

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Nov 3
Democratic party
Mary Peltola
Dan Sullivan
Vol $929.5K24h $10.3K
polymarketkalshi
House Democrats 8-10 Point Margin 2026

House Democrats 8-10 Point Margin 2026

Nov 3, 2027
Democrats, 8 to 10%
Democrats, 6 to 8%
Democrats, 10 to 12%
Vol $849.2K24h $6.9K
KL
South Carolina Senate Republican 2026

South Carolina Senate Republican 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Republican party
Annie Andrews
Vol $712.1K24h $11.6K
KL
Republican Governors After 2026 Midterms

Republican Governors After 2026 Midterms

Nov 3
24–25
22–23
26–27
Vol $679.3K24h $250
PM
Dan Osborn Nebraska Senate Winner 2026

Dan Osborn Nebraska Senate Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Pete Ricketts
Dan Osborn
Cindy Burbank
Vol $604.4K24h $1.8K
KL
Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nominee 2026

Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nominee 2026

Sep 15
Ed Markey
Seth Moulton
Ayanna Pressley
Vol $475.9K24h $1.2K
KL
Montana Senate Independent Party Winner 2026

Montana Senate Independent Party Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Kurt Alme
Seth Bodnar
Alani Bankhead
Vol $464.3K24h $24.2K
KL
Michigan Senate Election Winner

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
Vol $448.7K24h $11.4K
PM

Senate Republicans Primary Losses 2026

Nov 3
2
3
4 or more
Vol $411.1K24h $543
KL

Talarico Wins Texas Platner Wins Maine

Nov 3, 2027
James Talarico and Troy Jackson
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
Ken Paxton and Troy Jackson
Vol $408.9K24h $10.7K
KL
ACA Credits Extended House Winner 2026

ACA Credits Extended House Winner 2026

Nov 3
Not Extended & Democratic Party
Not Extended & Republican Party
Extended & Democratic Party
Vol $402.8K24h $21
PM

Republicans Win Presidency House Senate 2028

Feb 1, 2029
Democratic Sweep
Republican Sweep
D-House, R-Senate, D-President
Vol $363.3K24h $86
KL

Senate AI Surveillance Hearing Witness

3d
Advertise / Advertisement3%
Social Media1%
National Security1%
Vol $352.7K24h $349.1K
KL
2026 Midterm Elections Scheduled

2026 Midterm Elections Scheduled

Dec 31
Yes
No
Vol $336.4K24h $300
PM
US Government Shutdown House Winner 2026

US Government Shutdown House Winner 2026

Nov 3
Shutdown & Democratic Party
Shutdown & Republican Party
No Shutdown & Democratic Party
Vol $330.8K24h $1.8K
PM
Republican Wins Kansas Senate 2026

Republican Wins Kansas Senate 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Roger Marshall
Adam Hamilton
Vol $286.5K24h $1.1K
KL
Texas Republican Senate primary runoff: voter turnout

Texas Republican Senate primary runoff: voter turnout

Jun 2, 2027
Above 1.4M4%
Above 1.5M2%
Vol $274.7K24h $0
KL
Brazil Senate Election Most Seats 2026

Brazil Senate Election Most Seats 2026

Oct 4
PL
MDB
UNIÃO
Vol $273.9K24h $2.5K
PM
Republican House Seats 2026 Midterm

Republican House Seats 2026 Midterm

Nov 3
Below 190
195-199
200-204
Vol $271.3K24h $3.6K
PM
Republican Wins Minnesota Senate 2026

Republican Wins Minnesota Senate 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Peggy Flanagan
Michele Tafoya
Vol $238.4K24h $16.3K
KL

Democrats Hold More Governorships 2026

Apr 1, 2027
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Tie
Vol $209.7K24h $29
KL
Iowa Senate Election Winner 2026

Iowa Senate Election Winner 2026

Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
Vol $197.1K24h $12.3K
PM

Democrats Win Below 6 Virginia Seats

Nov 3, 2027
7
8
9
Vol $193.9K24h $85
KL
Nebraska Senate Election Winner 2026

Nebraska Senate Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Pete Ricketts (R)
Independent
Democrat
Vol $188.0K24h $2.7K
PM

New Hampshire Senate Republican 2027

Jan 4, 2027
Democratic party
Republican party
Vol $176.3K24h $259
KL

House Republicans Primary Losses 2026

Nov 3
4
7 or more
3
Vol $176.0K24h $5.6K
KL
Ohio Senate Election Winner 2026

Ohio Senate Election Winner 2026

Sherrod Brown (D)
Jon Husted (R)
Vol $172.2K24h $24.7K
PM
Republicans Win Trifecta Senate

Republicans Win Trifecta Senate

Nov 3
Yes
No
Vol $171.7K24h $207
PM

California District 11 House Winner

Nov 3
Scott Wiener
Connie Chan
Saikat Chakrabarti
Vol $159.8K24h $102
KL

Republican Wins Florida Senate 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Republican party
Democratic party
Vol $154.9K24h $3.4K
KL

Texas Senate Republican Wins by 9+

Nov 3, 2027
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
Vol $153.1K24h $12.7K
KL
Democratic Senate Primaries Five Winners

Democratic Senate Primaries Five Winners

Nov 3
Yes3%
No97%
Vol $144.4K24h $179
KL
South Carolina Senate Election Winner

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Republican
Democrat
Vol $144.3K24h $25.2K
PM
Democrats Win Core Four Senate Races 2026

Democrats Win Core Four Senate Races 2026

Nov 10
Yes
No
Vol $136.7K24h $26.7K
KL
OH-07 House Republican Winner 2026

OH-07 House Republican Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Brian Poindexter
Max Miller
Vol $135.1K24h $29
KL

Virginia District 6 House Election Winner

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $108.9K24h $5.1K
PM

MS-01 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $108.8K24h $0
PM
2026 Midterms House Popular Vote Margin

2026 Midterms House Popular Vote Margin

Nov 3
Democrats 8-10%
Democrats 10-12%
Democrats 6-8%
Vol $108.4K24h $8.4K
PM

OK-03 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $100.5K24h $5.7K
PM

CA-16 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $95.5K24h $4.9K
PM

California District 15 House Winner

Nov 3
Democratic Party
No
Vol $93.6K24h $0
PM

WV-02 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $92.4K24h $1.4K
PM

Julia Letlow Louisiana Senate Runoff Margin

Jun 27, 2027
Julia Letlow, ≥15%1%
No99%
Vol $87.1K24h $0
KL

Alabama Democratic Senate nominee?

Jan 1, 2027
Dakarai Larriett2%
No98%
Vol $83.7K24h $0
KL
Ohio Republican Senate nominee?

Ohio Republican Senate nominee?

Nov 3
Vivek Ramaswamy1%
No100%
Vol $78.5K24h $0
KL

Iowa Democratic Senate nominee?

Jun 2, 2027
Zach Wahls0%
No100%
Vol $76.3K24h $0
KL

Alabama 02 Republican House Winner

Jan 4, 2027
Rhett Marques
Shomari Figures
Vol $72.1K24h $10
KL

Progressive Democrats Sweep Senate Primaries

Nov 3
Yes
No
Vol $71.2K24h $59
KL
MN-01 House Republican Winner 2027

MN-01 House Republican Winner 2027

Jan 4, 2027
Brad Finstad
Jake Johnson
Vol $69.7K24h $3.0K
KL

MI-11 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $69.6K24h $3.0K
PM
Republican House Incumbents Lose Primary

Republican House Incumbents Lose Primary

4-6
7-9
>15
Vol $67.1K24h $3.3K
PM

KS-04 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $63.6K24h $8.6K
PM
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?

Nov 3
Yes
No
Vol $63.2K24h $0
PM

LA-06 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $62.5K24h $2.7K
PM

Virginia Fifth District House Winner

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $62.0K24h $3.3K
PM

LA-02 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $60.1K24h $1.8K
PM

OH-06 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $59.9K24h $4.7K
PM

CA-50 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $59.9K24h $1.8K
PM

WI-03 Republican House Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Rebecca Cooke
No
Vol $59.4K24h $0
KL

California House District 23 Election Winner

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $59.0K24h $18.7K
PM

TX-21 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $57.6K24h $5.2K
PM

Virginia House 9th District Election 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $57.5K24h $1.6K
PM

Illinois 4th District House Election

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $57.1K24h $1.5K
PM

TX-24 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $54.2K24h $14.4K
PM

North Dakota Alabama House Election 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $52.2K24h $8.6K
PM

FL-26 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $51.1K24h $8.9K
PM

OH-07 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $49.6K24h $2.9K
PM

South Carolina 01 House Election Winner

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $49.2K24h $7.8K
PM

CA-39 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $47.7K24h $3.8K
PM

WV-01 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
No
Vol $47.3K24h $0
PM

NC-12 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $47.0K24h $1.9K
PM

Idaho District 1 House Election 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $45.3K24h $8.6K
PM

Ohio District 5 House Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Vol $44.3K24h $1.3K
PM
Republicans Lose House Majority 2026

Republicans Lose House Majority 2026

Jan 8, 2027
Republican Party
No
Vol $43.7K24h $233
KL

HI-02 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
No
Vol $43.0K24h $0
PM
FL-22 Republican House Winner 2027

FL-22 Republican House Winner 2027

Jan 4, 2027
Democratic party
No
Vol $42.8K24h $0
KL

NE-02 House Republican Winner 2026

Jan 4, 2027
Brinker Harding
No
Vol $36.7K24h $0
KL
Utah 1st District House Election 2026

Utah 1st District House Election 2026

Nov 4
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Vol $36.2K24h $2.4K
PM

New York District 10 House Winner

Nov 3
Republican Party
No
Vol $35.0K24h $0
PM

Ohio 2nd District House Election

Nov 3
Democratic Party
No
Vol $34.6K24h $0
PM
White House Visitor 2026

White House Visitor 2026

Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping
No
Vol $34.0K24h $0
KL

North Carolina 1 Republican House Winner

Jan 4, 2027
Laurie Buckhout
No
Vol $32.8K24h $0
KL

NJ-10 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Republican Party
No
Vol $32.8K24h $0
PM
NY-18 House Election Winner 2026

NY-18 House Election Winner 2026

Nov 4
Democratic Party
No
Vol $32.0K24h $2
PM

California 52nd House Election Winner 2026

Nov 3
Democratic Party
No
Vol $31.8K24h $0
PM

Louisiana 06 Republican House Winner

Jan 4, 2027
Republican party
No
Vol $30.7K24h $0
KL

Neal Dunn Leaves Congress Before Nov 2026

Nov 3
Yes
No
Vol $22.3K24h $0
KL
2026 Midterms House Turnout

2026 Midterms House Turnout

Nov 3
115-120m
120-125m
110-115m
Vol $18.4K24h $7.5K
PM
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

Dec 31
Yes
No
Vol $18.3K24h $0
PM
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

Nov 3
Yes
No
Vol $17.4K24h $0
PM

Republican Senate House Seats After 2026

Nov 3
47–49 and 193–207
≤46 and 193–207
50–52 and 193–207
Vol $13.1K24h $6.5K
PM

Democrats House Seats Texas 2026

Nov 3
12
8
Vol $3.3K24h $2.9K
PM

TX-23 Special Election Before Midterms 2026

Nov 3
In 2026
No
Vol $3.1K24h $0
KL

Democrats House Seats Won Alabama 2026

Nov 3
1
2
0
Vol $2.6K24h $1.7K
PM

Democrats House Seats California 2026

Nov 3
48
No
Vol $2.0K24h $1.3K
PM

Democrats Win Minnesota House Seats 2026

Nov 3
4
<3
Vol $1.6K24h $1.5K
PM

Democrats House Seats North Carolina 2026

Nov 3
5
3
Vol $1.6K24h $1.5K
PM

Democrats House Seats Won Florida 2026

Nov 3
7
4
9
Vol $1.3K24h $267
PM

Democrats Nevada House Seats Won 2026

Nov 3
3
1
0
Vol $1.1K24h $235
PM

Democrats Colorado House Seats Won 2026

Nov 3
6
7+
5
Vol $1.0K24h $174
PM

Democrats House Seats Arizona 2026

Nov 3
7+
4
Vol $1.0K24h $896
PM

Will Trump say "Midterm" in August?

Aug 31
Yes
No
Vol $98924h $126
PM

Democrats House Seats Won Virginia 2026

Nov 3
6
No
Vol $86824h $122
PM

Democrats House Seats New York Nov 3

Nov 3
<16
No
Vol $9724h $20
PM

Democrats House Seats Ohio 2026

Nov 3
<2
No
Vol $8924h $89
PM