Mary Peltola
Sen. Dan Sullivan
David Leslie
Ann Diener
Richard GraysonAlaska Senate Election Winner
Updated 3h ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 5, 2026
Polymarket prices Peltola at 64%, nearly double Sullivan's 37%, based on her 49.5% primary victory on August 18 and reported polling edges heading into ranked-choice voting on November 3. Yet polls are genuinely mixed: a late-July survey gave Peltola a 53-47 lead, while newer August polling and some aggregators show Sullivan ahead or tied, suggesting the market may be overweighting the primary result and underweighting recent survey tightening. The race remains toss-up territory despite the market's confident lean toward the Democrat.
As of September 7, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Alaska Senate Election Winner are: Mary Peltola: 64%, Sen. Dan Sullivan: 37%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Alaska Senate Election Winner is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
